BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, Labour party leadership and the impact of the Middle East conflict
Robert Struthers, Head of Polling at BMG, comments on Labour leadership:
Half of Britons believe Keir Starmer should be replaced as Labour leader before the next general election. Strikingly, this includes two in five of those who back Labour in the 2024 election.
The case for Burnham is clear. From his mayoral position, he has become by far the most popular alternative figure. No other Labour frontrunner comes close, whether Rayner, Streeting, Miliband or any other.
By way of comparison, Burnham’s 21% among those who want a change compares with Sadiq Khan – the other high-profile Labour mayor – at just 2%. He has been able to capture the imagination of a notable share of the public in a way that no other leading Labour figure has been able to.
However, our polling suggests Burnham performs slightly worse than Starmer when asked who would make the best prime minister against other party leaders.
Supporters of Burnham would counter that, given time to set out a vision for the country, this could change. But backers of Starmer can make the case that no alternative candidate immediately improves Labour’s position – or at least that that idea is not a given.
This is often the case. Polling on these questions, when name recognition is uneven, is difficult to interpret. The public are signalling towards Burnham, but it is impossible to say with certainty whether Labour’s fortunes would improve.
That said, with Labour on 19% and a historically unpopular prime minister, it is hard to see how things could get much worse.
Catherine Lethbridge, pollster at BMG, comments on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East:
More than half of the public (54%) say they have made some kind of behavioural change as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, up slightly on last month. A quarter report cutting back on non-essential spending such as eating out, while an equal share say they are being more cautious about big purchases — a pattern that will concern retailers already navigating a fragile consumer environment. Energy use, fuel buying and household stockpiling are also being adjusted, though the sharpest month-on-month shift is in travel: the proportion changing holiday or flight plans jumped six percentage points since March, suggesting unease about the conflict is beginning to weigh on longer-term planning, not just day-to-day spending.
An article by The i on vote intention and Labour leadership can be found here.
An article by The i on the the impact of the Middle East conflict can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,521 GB adults between 29th and 30th April. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.