BMG and The i poll: Voting intention, the Burnham Bounce and Farage’s approval ratings
BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, the Burnham Bounce and Nigel Farage’s approval ratings
Robert Struthers, Head of Public Perceptions at BMG, comments on Andy Burnham’s first weeks:
Burnham entered Number 10 just over a week ago, and this poll shows the public like what they see. With other pollsters starting to pick up similar movements, we can begin to be confident that the Burnham bounce is real.
It’s the first Labour lead in our series since March 2025. Sixteen months, going right back to just before the local elections, where Reform started building big leads.
Repeated at an election and Labour would be comfortably the largest party, on the cusp of a majority, although still nothing like the landslide they had in 2024.
With Labour up and Reform down, it’s tempting to read a flow of voters from Reform to Labour. But not much of this shift since June is Labour winning votes that had gone to Reform. Instead, it is a tale of two voting blocs and the dynamics beneath.
On the ‘left’, Labour is getting the band back together. Burnham is pulling former Labour voters back into the tent. He’s shored up the 2024 vote. In June in the final weeks of Stramer, just over 6 in 10 were sticking with the party. Now it’s 7 in 10.
And he’s winning back voters from parties to Labour’s left. 10% of 2024 Green voters say they’d switch to him. That’s what you could probably describe as the ‘hardcore’ Green vote, before Polanski took over and grew their support.
Indeed, the shift from 2024 Labour voters who went Green under Starmer is likely bigger still. All of this means the Greens drop three points, their lowest in our series since Polanski took charge.
As the ‘left’ bloc unites more behind Labour, the right bloc looks altogether more fragmented. Reform is being squeezed from both sides. We’re increasingly seeing the Tories hold on to more of their 2024 vote under Badenoch with fewer switching to Reform. More Reform voters are saying they’d go to another party, indicative of the impact of Restore Britain.
Burnham’s flurry of announcements have clearly struck a chord. A signal of intent, with policies like the VAT cut on electricity and capping bus fares proving very popular. Couple this with a more natural, authentic personal appeal, and Labour suddenly find themselves out in front.
It’s early days, and he wouldn’t be the first Prime Minister to inherit the job from a predecessor of the same party, enjoy a honeymoon, then run into electoral realities. Gordon Brown and Theresa May are evidence of that. But there’s no denying the strong start.
Robert Struthers, Head of Public Perceptions at BMG, comments on leader popularity:
Much of the story of the polls since the last election has been the rise of Reform and the Greens under Farage and Polanski. Driven by their ability to connect, they climbed while Starmer’s own ratings fell to historic depths.
In recent months the appeal of both has waned. This month that decline has accelerated. Farage’s net satisfaction has dropped to minus 26, down from minus 16 in June, while Polanski sits at minus 22, down from minus 15.
Polanski has been mired in controversy about posts on social media and Farage’s by-election looks something of a sideshow. Once the insurgents were front and centre, driving the agenda. Now they look more like spectators on the sidelines.
The contrast with Labour is striking. Burnham has used his early days in charge to focus on the cost of living, which remains the top priority for voters. The VAT cut on electricity bills and the £2 cap on bus fares are extremely popular, each backed by around 7 in 10 Britons.
Burnham’s first week has also brought a sense of optimism. We asked the public whether Burnham as Prime Minister made them feel more or less optimistic about the country. It is not quite “hope in every heart,” as he promised last week, but the balance is clearly positive: many feel no different, yet twice as many feel more optimistic than less. That includes many 2024 Conservative and Reform voters.
All this has translated into strong personal ratings for Burnham. Strikingly, his net score of plus five is higher than Starmer managed at any point as Prime Minister.
After writing off Labour under Starmer, voters are giving Burnham a hearing. And while it’s very early days, so far they like what they see.
An article by The i on vote intention and the Burnham bounce can be found here.
An article by The i on Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski’s approval ratings can be found here.
An article by The i on Burnham’s policies, including a wealth tax, can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,559 GB adults between 28th and 29th July. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.