On every trait voters value in a leader, Burnham beats Farage
On authenticity, integrity and competence, voters pick Burnham over Farage. And they’d rather have a pint with him too.
What makes a good political leader? The academic literature is mixed, but a few key qualities recur time and again.
Two are long recognised: competence, whether a leader can do the job, and integrity, whether they’re honest and keep their word. But voters prize a third too: authenticity. Research across seven democracies by Valgarðsson, Jennings, Stoker, McKay, Devine and Clarke showed that being authentically in touch with ordinary people can count just as much, and it mattered most to those with the least trust in politics.[1]
So, we tested Burnham, our likely next Prime Minister, against Farage, the most likely alternative PM at the next election. For each of the three areas above, we put a series of characteristics to voters to measure it.
What did we find? On every single one, Burnham leads Farage. Here’s the breakdown:
Authenticity: Asked who better “understands people like me”, voters favour Burnham 41% to 25%, a sixteen-point gap and the widest on any measure we tested. He leads on being genuine too, 40% to 25%, and on being comfortable and at ease with himself, 38% to 30%.
Integrity: On being honest, Burnham leads Farage 38% to 23%, a fifteen-point lead and almost as wide. On delivering on his promises, it’s 36% to 25%.
Competence: Asked who’s more competent, voters favour Burnham 41% to 25%. Likewise, on handling a national emergency under pressure, it’s 38% to 26%. On having a clear plan and vision for the country, 36% to 28%.
[1] Valgarðsson, Jennings, Stoker et al., “The Good Politician”, Political Studies (2025), which tested what makes voters trust a politician across seven countries.
Seeming in touch signals to voters that a politician is on their side and gets their lives. And there’s a simpler force at work too: people warm to politicians who feel real, and that liking feeds trust on its own. Burnham’s mayoral image, rooted outside the Westminster bubble, does precisely that, and likely feeds his reputation for honesty as well.
But Burnham’s appeal doesn’t stop at authenticity and integrity, and that’s what’s really striking. In my experience polling politicians, most score well on one or two of these buckets, rarely all three. Some come across as competent but detached, short on warmth and relatability; others seem authentic and in touch yet leave doubts about whether they can do the job. Burnham is the rare politician who pairs that warmth and trust with a clear sense of competence too.
For a bit of fun, we also asked which of the two voters would rather have a pint with. Despite Farage always being pictured with a lager in hand, Burnham takes it, 34% to 28%. His narrowest lead, but a lead all the same.
So far, all the data I’ve charted looks rosy for Burnham. But a few caveats are worth bearing in mind.
First, the don’t knows run high throughout, often a third or more. Some of that is just unfamiliarity, but a lot of it probably means “neither”: voters who weren’t sold on either man.
Second, a lead on qualities tells you who voters admire, not who they vote for. Burnham’s appeal is concentrated on the left and centre, the Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters. He would need to win some of them over – or at least get them voting tactically in the places that matter – to win the next election. There are positive signs here, though. As I showed in my last post, he looks well placed to win some of those left and centre voters back, and our polling this month shows voters on the left are more willing to vote tactically, something I will expand on in my next post.
Third, Burnham isn’t even Prime Minister yet. For all his decades in politics, it’s been a long time since he was last in the national spotlight, and he hasn’t been properly tested. Right now he’s the new, exciting politician of the moment, but that goodwill will inevitably wear off as the reality of governing sets in.
But these caveats don’t change the headline. The leads across all three sets of qualities are sizeable, and they hint at how Burnham might fight a national campaign. We saw the blueprint in Makerfield: a presidential-style pitch where Labour barely got a look in. It was all brand Burnham.
If his popularity holds up, the move at the next general election is obvious: make it Burnham against Farage and let voters draw the contrast.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,508 GB adults between 23rd and 24th June. Data was collected after Keir Starmer announced he was standing down as Labour leader. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.