BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction, Labour Party decisions on the budget and British views on the US Presidential Election.

Analysis by Robert Struthers – Head of Polling at BMG

An election may still be five years away, and the Conservatives haven’t even chosen their next leader, but it’s always revealing to see how the public is responding to a new government.

Keir Starmer’s brief political honeymoon – if he had one at all – appears to be over, with Labour’s vote intention slipping for the second month in a row. The Reform Party appears to be the main beneficiary. Its share is growing, nearing 19%—matching the joint highest level we’ve recorded for Farage’s party.

The Labour poll slump isn’t just visible in vote share; perhaps more concerning are Starmer’s satisfaction numbers. He’s now facing his worst-ever net rating, as rising energy costs and warnings of a tough budget are taking their toll, pushing him well into negative territory.

Starmer hopes his “grown-up” approach and willingness to make tough decisions now will pay off in the long term. Early in a parliamentary term, public popularity isn’t the most pressing concern—but perhaps the new Government would have hoped for a bit more recognition and understanding from voters.

An article by The i on the Labour Party decisions in government can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

Other news and insights

BMG and The i poll: Voting intention, the Burnham Bounce and Farage’s approval ratings News

BMG and The i poll: Voting intention, the Burnham Bounce and Farage's approval ratings

3 August 2026

Burnham might back more drilling in the North Sea. Do the public? News

Burnham might back more drilling in the North Sea. Do the public?

23 July 2026

On every trait voters value in a leader, Burnham beats Farage News

On every trait voters value in a leader, Burnham beats Farage

1 July 2026

The Burnham bounce: Labour's lost voters are listening again News

The Burnham bounce: Labour's lost voters are listening again

29 June 2026

BMG and The i poll: Labour leadership and youth unemployment News

BMG and The i poll: Labour leadership and youth unemployment

1 June 2026

BMG and The i poll: Labour leadership and Middle East conflict News

BMG and The i poll: Labour leadership and Middle East conflict

5 May 2026

NEWS RELEASE News

NEWS RELEASE

14 April 2026

Robotaxis in London News

Robotaxis in London

14 April 2026

BMG study with Internet Matters in Digital Wellbeing News

BMG study with Internet Matters in Digital Wellbeing

8 April 2026

Welsh polling on energy attitudes News

Welsh polling on energy attitudes

8 April 2026

BMG and The i poll: Iran War and cost-of-living pressures News

BMG and The i poll: Iran War and cost-of-living pressures

30 March 2026

BMG and The i poll: Tactical voting and Iran War News

BMG and The i poll: Tactical voting and Iran War

9 March 2026