The Burnham bounce: Labour’s lost voters are listening again
After more than a year trailing Reform, BMG polling for The i puts Labour narrowly ahead with Burnham at the helm.
Under Starmer, voters had stopped listening: Labour trailed every poll in our series since April 2025, and the only question inside the party was how to limit the damage. With Burnham at the helm, that dynamic has changed and voters are willing to give Labour a second hearing.
Our polling underscores Burnham’s impact. We asked voters how they would cast their ballot with Burnham as Labour leader and compared that to a question where Starmer stays in place. Under Starmer, Labour sits on 22%, behind Reform on 26%. With Burnham at the helm, Labour edges into a narrow lead, 27% to Reform’s 26%.
Five points. That is how much Labours vote share increases with Burnham at the helm, and while it may not sound like much, it represents around 1.5 million voters moving to Labour. That is the difference between bracing for the worst and believing the next election is winnable again.
At 27% to 26%, Labour and Reform are essentially tied once you account for the margin of error. But after more than a year charting vote intention with Reform’s teal blue bar on top, seeing Labour red bar pull ahead is striking even if just by a single point.
And more health warnings apply beyond the margin of error. This is a hypothetical poll: Andy Burnham is not yet Prime Minister, and how voters feel once he takes the helm could be altogether different, in either direction.
But as hypotheticals go, this one feels far less speculative than the kind of scenario-polling question that rightly attracts scepticism. Burnham looks set to become PM in a matter of weeks assuming nobody steps in and forces a contest. So it is worth taking seriously what these numbers are telling us.
Shoring up Labour’s left flank
We can explore how people answered our standard vote intention question and follow where they go under the Burnham hypothetical. The biggest move comes from the left to centre-left side of the equation. 18% of those who would otherwise back the Greens switch to Burnham, with 16% of Liberal Democrats doing the same (though some prior Labour voters move the other way, back to those parties, partly offsetting the effect).
Critically, he also appears better than Starmer at shoring up those who voted Labour in 2024. The 56% of 2024 Labour voters who say they would still vote Labour with Starmer as leader rises to 65% under Burnham, a partial recovery that still highlights the depth of support Labour has lost.
But Burnham also looks to draw some support from the right. Reform’s vote holds up well, but Burnham still peels off 4% of it, along with 9% of those who back the Conservatives in our standard vote intention question.
Nationally, the picture echoes what appears to have happened in the Makerfield by-election. The left bloc is quickest to unite behind him, but he also has some capacity to draw votes from those who might otherwise have gone to Reform or the Conservatives.
An early election?
I’ve heard it said that the idea of Andy Burnham is better than the reality of Andy Burnham. In the context of our poll, this is a valid concern. Much of what we are measuring is promise rather than proof, and only time will tell whether it holds. Hypothetical polls are unreliable, and voters will have better information to cast judgement if, and indeed when, Burnham enters Downing Street.
But this is not Sunak, where most voters had already made up their minds about the Conservatives after a succession of Prime Ministers they had grown tired of. The appetite for change is real, and what this poll shows is that some voters are willing to give Labour a second hearing under Burnham, one they were no longer prepared to give if Starmer had remained in place.
The realities of governing may catch up with him just as fast, but for now voters like what they see. For the moment, Burnham is the shiny new thing, not Farage.
There must be a temptation to go early. Reform are beset by questions over Farage’s £5 million gift, the SNP are still reeling from the Murrell scandal, and Burnham now offers Labour the prospect of a polling bounce. If our hypothetical numbers hold once he is in office, or climb higher still, the case to go to the country will only grow.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
An article by The i on vote intention, vote intention with Burnham as Labour leader and tactical voting can be found here.
An article by The i on Burnham’s policies and can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,508 GB adults between 23rd and 24th June. Data was collected after Keir Starmer announced he was standing down as Labour leader. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.