BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and the upcoming General Election.
Analysis by Robert Struthers – Head of Polling at BMG
The Conservatives should not take much comfort from the slight narrowing in the Labour lead we have seen in the last week. Unfortunately for Sunak, this is simply too little, too late.
Yes, this gives them more of fighting chance to remain the official opposition, but if repeated on Thursday, it would still represent a truly catastrophic election performance — the worst in their history, with a Labour landslide of unprecedented size.
Why? The reason is rather simple: voters feel it’s time for change. This sentiment is the top reason motivating Labour voters, and it’s an even more common answer among voters who have switched from Conservative to Labour.
The irony of all of this is that Labour’s vote share looks to have slipped back slightly during the campaign. This dip means Labour could achieve approximately the same, or even slightly less, of the vote share than they did under Corbyn in 2017.
Reform has played a key role in this election. Our poll in the first week of the campaign showed a slight dip in their support, but once Farage announced his comeback, their support improved. Looking at why Reform voters back the party, Farage’s leadership is the top reason—the only party where leadership surpasses the simple demand for change.
And while support for Reform is lower than when it was when level-pegging with the Conservatives two weeks ago, it looks strong enough to secure some seats and help consign Sunak to a historic defeat.
The Liberal Democrats will also play a key role. Their vote share looks to be similar to that they achieved in 2019, but high levels of tactical voting accompanied by the Conservative collapse, mean they look set to pick up dozens of seats.
We should also not forget the Green Party, which has grown its support and looks on track for a record general election result. This also helps explain Labour’s lower vote share and why Starmer will have to deal with pressure from both the left and the right as Prime Minister.
An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
| Last week | This week | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 42% | 39% |
| Conservative | 20% | 20% |
| Reform | 16% | 16% |
| Liberal Democrats | 12% | 11% |
| Green Party | 6% | 7% |
| SNP | 3% | 3% |
| Other | 2% | 3% |