BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, government budgets, the Conservative leadership and the UK riots.
Analysis by Oliver White – Pollster at BMG Research
British voters won’t have a direct say in the selection of Rishi Sunak’s successor as leader of the Conservative Party—that decision will ultimately rest with Conservative MPs and members. For those within the party looking to draw lessons on who might be best placed to win back broader public support, our polling offers few clear answers.
Unlike some previous Conservative leadership contests with clear frontrunners in terms of public popularity, this race appears wide open. While some politicians are slightly more popular than others—James Cleverly emerges as a marginal favourite among both the general public and Conservative voters, while Priti Patel finds favour among Reform UK supporters—there’s little to suggest a consensus on who is best suited to lead the party forward.
Early polling shows that only half of the public is familiar with Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative members’ early favourite, meaning she remains something of an unknown quantity to the wider electorate.
More generally, it is striking that more than half of the public simply say they are unsure or have no preference for the next leader; Cleverly, the most popular choice, attracts just 8% of support.
This underscores the significant work ahead for the next leader, who will need to gain traction within the party and start to rebuild support with an electorate that roundly rejected them just a few weeks ago.
An article by The i on the Conservative Party leadership contest can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
| All voters | Conservative voters | Reform voters | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 4% | 8% | 10% |
| James Cleverly | 8% | 15% | 10% |
| Robert Jenrick | 5% | 9% | 6% |
| Priti Patel | 6% | 9% | 12% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Met Stride | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| No preference | 45% | 29% | 38% |
| Don't know | 24% | 16% | 15% |