BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction, and reaction to the Spring Statement.
Analysis by Robert Struthers, Head of Polling at BMG.
Not since the mini-budget has a fiscal event been viewed so negatively by the public as this Spring Statement. The only silver lining for Labour is that public awareness of the event is lower than for more negatively perceived budgets in previous years — meaning any criticism may not be quite as widely felt.
As is often the case with fiscal events, Labour faces a familiar challenge: individual policies are polling positively, but public sentiment towards the overall package remains negative. That’s a hard narrative to shift — and the Spring Statement has so far been unable to do so.
Yes, Labour may take some comfort that, in the wake of the Spring Statement, the party has regained its lead over the Conservatives and Reform — but that appears to be more a result of Reform’s internal troubles than a strong public reaction to Reeves’ announcements this week.
Despite this, Rachel Reeves’ claim that Labour is on the side of working people finds some support in the data. Those in full-time employment were far more likely to see themselves as winners from the Spring Statement compared to those not currently in work.
Some on the left may see voter perceptions that the budget benefits the wealthy and higher earners as a sign Labour is drifting from its roots. Others on the party’s right may argue it shows Labour breaking from stereotype and taking difficult decisions.
An article by The i on reaction to the Spring Statement can be found here.
An article by The i on vote intention can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.