BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, pensions and Trump’s policies.
Analysis by Jack Curry, pollster at BMG
Reform’s 9-point lead over Labour marks their strongest position since April. Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have also hit a new high, with 36% satisfied and a net satisfaction of +6%, while Keir Starmer’s ratings have dropped to their lowest since Spring. This combination of Reform’s momentum and Labour’s stagnation is reshaping the electoral landscape.
Labour still narrowly leads on core issues like healthcare, housing, education, and welfare, but Reform is closing in. The party’s ability to cut into Labour’s traditional strengths suggests a broader appeal than some have previously assumed, and their recent push on crime also seems to be cutting through with the public with their lead on the issue growing. Labour’s electoral prospects, already looking bleak, now face further complications from the emergence of a new progressive challenger.
Our experimental polling on Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s new party shows 6% of voters would back it if a General Election were held tomorrow. While that’s a sizeable figure, it still places the party behind the Greens. Additionally, caution is needed. The party lacks a recognisable name, and its novelty, combined with the separate question format, may have inflated its numbers slightly. It could fizzle out or struggle to stand candidates nationwide.
More people said “don’t know” than “yes” when asked if they’d consider voting for Your Party, showing that Corbyn and Sultana will need to focus on visibility and messaging. Still, around a third of respondents see the party as a moderate or major threat to Labour, and there is clear appetite, especially among 2024 Labour and Green voters, for a new progressive force. Even a small share of Reform voters expressed interest, reinforcing the idea that this new party could appeal across traditional divides.
In short, Reform’s rise and Corbyn and Sultana’s new party emergence are squeezing Labour from both sides. The electoral maths for Starmer was already difficult, now it looks even tougher.
An article by The i on vote intention can be found here.
An article by The i on the impact of Trump’s policies can be found here.
An article by The i on pensions can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.