BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention and the upcoming spending review.
Analysis by Jack Curry, pollster at BMG
Reform’s shocking lead last month is no fluke, it’s the continuation of a clear and growing trend. While Labour has narrowed the gap slightly, buoyed by a modest rebound in Keir Starmer’s satisfaction ratings, Reform are still comfortably in the lead. If these results were reflected in a general election, they wouldn’t just make gains, they would be on course for a commanding majority. The political landscape is shifting fast, and Reform is now setting the pace.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are in freefall. Their vote share has dropped to a historic low of 18%, and Kemi Badenoch’s net satisfaction has sunk to -8%, the worst since she became leader. Even among 2024 Conservative voters, nearly a third now say they’d back Reform. That’s not just a protest, it’s a realignment, and if the Tories aren’t careful it could be the end of them as an electoral force.
When asked about the issues facing the country, the public’s trust in Reform has solidified. They now lead not only on immigration and the EU/Brexit, where they have long been dominant, but also on the economy and cost of living. That’s a seismic shift. Labour has clawed back some ground on housing and welfare, but it’s not enough to offset Reform’s momentum.
An article by The i on vote intention can be found here.
An article by The i on public spending can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.