BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction, and the relationship between the UK and the EU.
Analysis by Robert Struthers – Pollster at BMG
Our voting intention numbers signal a new era in British politics, with a genuine three-horse race emerging. Reform UK has recorded its highest-ever poll numbers and is now effectively neck and neck with the two established parties of government.
Kemi Badenoch is certainly not benefiting from any honeymoon period in her early months as Leader of the Opposition. Since taking on the role, she has only become less popular, with her satisfaction numbers remaining static while dissatisfaction continues to rise. She also remains an unknown quantity to many, with a significant number of people unsure or having no opinion of her.
Her party is being outflanked on the right—as many as one in five of the relatively low share that voted Conservative now intending to vote Reform. Reform is also attracting a notable 7% of 2024 Labour voters.
Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is now the has reached his lowest level of popularity that we have ever recorded. At the time of the election, opinion on him was roughly balanced—now, twice as many people have a negative view of his leadership and performance as a positive one.
Nigel Farage, on the other hand, has the highest satisfaction rating among the leaders in this three-way contest, though a roughly equal share are dissatisfied. In a three-horse race, you could argue he is the strongest jockey.
The last time British politics saw three parties polling this closely was in 2010, shortly before the election, when the Liberal Democrats’ vote share surged to rival that of the Conservatives and Labour.
Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats failed to convert strong polling numbers into seats despite securing 24% of the vote. First-past-the-post poses similar challenges for Reform UK. Still, this parliament offers a unique opportunity for Reform to disrupt the established two-party system.
An article by The i on Voting Intention can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
