BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, Labour party leadership and the Milburn review.
Jack Curry, pollster at BMG, comments on vote intention and Labour leadership:
Labour will take small comfort from this month’s numbers, but only small. The party’s vote share has nudged up a couple of points, yet it remains a clear distance behind Reform, and Sir Keir Starmer’s personal ratings continue to drag. Even on the issues, Labour now leads on only two, education and the war in Ukraine, being comfortably below Reform on the cost of living, crime, immigration and a host of others. The local elections and front-bench resignations have left the party visibly bruised, and the polling reflects a public that has largely stopped listening.
There has been a slight shift towards those who want Starmer to stay as leader, with backing for him to remain ticking up since April. But the underlying picture remains uncomfortable for the Prime Minister, with a clear majority of those expressing a view still wanting him gone. Even among those who voted Labour at the last election, only a small majority back him to stay, with a sizeable chunk preferring a change in direction. Andy Burnham is the runaway choice among those favouring a change, with Wes Streeting a very distant second currently. Among past Labour voters who want a new leader, Burnham’s share has increased sharply from April, suggesting a coalescing of support. He is also the only Labour politician we tested with a positive net favourability rating, while Starmer and Rachel Reeves sit deep in negative territory.
When we tested likelihood to vote for Burnham’s Labour against Starmer’s, there was a small increase in those who would back the party under Burnham, but even if he wins the Makerfield by-election and becomes Labour leader, it is by no means guaranteed he would turn around Labour’s electoral fortunes straight away.
On the question of whether a leadership change should trigger an early general election, the headline finding looks striking at first glance, with almost half of the public saying yes against around a third who think a new leader should serve out the parliament. But that headline is shaped considerably by the party split. The overwhelming majority of Reform voters and a clear majority of Conservative voters want an early contest, which is hardly surprising. Among Labour’s own 2024 voters, the picture flips, with a majority preferring a new leader to continue in office rather than face the country straight away. Any successor to Starmer would still face questions of legitimacy, but the loudest appetite for an early election is concentrated among voters that are not a priority for Labour anyway.
Catherine Lethbridge, pollster at BMG, comments on Farage’s gift from Christopher Harborne:
Three in five of the British public believe that the £5 million donation Nigel Farage reportedly received from businessman Christopher Harborne should have been publicly declared, despite Farage’s insistence that it was a personal gift requiring no disclosure. Yet so far, the saga has done little to dent Reform’s electoral standing or dampen satisfaction with Farage as party leader. With a parliamentary standards commission inquiry being launched, it remains to be seen whether the details around the donation has any material effect on Reform’s standing.
Lucy Stevenson, pollster at BMG, comments on the Milburn review:
The public broadly back conditional benefits for young people, with a clear majority believing 18-to-24s should be required to be in work, education or training in order to receive support. Though a more pronounced view in Conservative and Reform voters, this consensus cuts across party lines. Only a small minority think benefits should be available with no conditions attached, reflecting a wider public view that state support comes with obligations.
Against the backdrop of the Milburn review, that consensus carries real weight for young people not in employment, education or training. Among those who back conditionality, the appetite for a punitive approach is striking: half would stop benefits entirely for young people who refuse work or education, and a further four in ten favour a reduction. Fewer than one in ten would settle for a warning alone. The harder-line instinct is driven largely by Conservative and Reform voters, while Labour supporters who back conditionality tend to favour reduction over outright removal. With a youth unemployment crisis looming, the government faces a delicate balancing act, but public opinion is firmly behind a strong approach.
An article by The i on vote intention and Labour leadership can be found here.
An article by The i on the Milburn review and youth unemployment can be found here.
An article by The i on Nigel Farage’s financial gift from Christopher Harborne can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,511 GB adults between 26th and 28th May. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.