BMG and The i poll: Labour Leadership and under 16s social media ban
Analysis by Jack Curry, pollster at BMG
The fragmented political landscape
Our latest polling paints the picture of an increasingly fractured political landscape. Both Labour and the Conservatives have lost ground since the end of last year, while Reform has surged to where it was in July last year, and the Greens have again hit a record high.
If this played out in a general election, Reform would be on course not just to emerge as the largest party but to secure a working majority, while no other party would even reach triple‑digit seat totals. It reflects a political environment in which disillusionment with the two traditional Westminster parties has intensified, creating space for Reform to consolidate and the Greens to benefit as well.
Mounting pressure on party leaders
This frustration is also visible in voters’ satisfaction with party leaders. Keir Starmer now records the worst numbers of his leadership. Crucially, for the first time, even 2024 Labour voters give him a negative net satisfaction rating.
Kemi Badenoch’s numbers, while less dramatic, are also trending downward. Despite Reform increasing in the polls Nigel Farage has seen a notable cooling too. Satisfaction has fallen from a summertime high, while dissatisfaction has also climbed. All three leaders end the winter in a weaker position than they entered it, reflecting a broader erosion of trust in political leadership.
This collapse in confidence is mirrored in the issue‑based metrics, which show Labour losing ground across almost every policy area. Labour’s lead on key domestic issues has narrowed sharply or disappeared entirely, they now trail Reform not only on traditional Reform strengths such as immigration and Brexit, but also on areas Labour once dominated, such as unemployment, housing and social care.
Labour retains slim advantages only on the NHS, education, pensions and the war in Ukraine, and even there the margin is just one point or zero. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have failed to capitalise, sitting eight points behind Reform on average across all issues.
A possible Burnham leadership challenge
Against this backdrop, it is perhaps unsurprising that public appetite for change within Labour is growing. Only one in five think Labour should keep Keir Starmer as leader, while around half want a new figure at the helm. The public’s instinctive choice is Andy Burnham, but the same proportion choosing him opted for a “none of the above”, and more said they did not know who they wanted to replace Starmer.
Nevertheless, he was chosen by more than all other named candidates combined. Burnham is also the only Labour politician tested with a net positive favourability score, making him an outlier in a party struggling with its public image. While this does not amount to a clamour for Burnham, it indicates a public increasingly unsure that Starmer can turn things around, and increasingly willing to look outside Westminster for someone who might.
An article by The i on vote intention can be found here.
An article by The i on the Labour Party leadership can be found here.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,513 GB adults between 28 and 29 January. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.